In my opinion the US would win a war without a doubt considering that our navy is simply too powerful and Russia and China would never be able to have broken a naval blockade.
Who would win a conventional war The US vs Russia and China
Updated on March 29, 2022 in
Government
In a Realistic scenario where there is no surrender, Allies, treaty or peace Russia and china would outlive the U.S.A (Mostly because they have better crowd control + Higher economy) but in the case that there is Allies helping each side U.S.A Has much more western europe support which would massively boost both their land control Russia and china have less allies that are less useful some in eastern europe and a few southern american countries in that case U.S.A (NATO) Would win. Then again i highely doubt this’ll ever happen
If there ever were to be a scenario in which these war breaks out between the Russian Federation and The Peoples Republic of China against the United states of America then you would have to thing in the bigger picture. If there is no surrender, allies or peace treaty to be signed in such a conflict then its not that Russia and China would simply outlive The US, far from it.
China being a highly manufacturing and trade involved economy would seek to keep maritime shipping routes open and trade flowing in order to keep the economy stable, however, The United States has drafted a plan into targeting said weakness. The Island Chain Strategy is solely to contain and restrict maritime shipping and naval projection to and from the nation. Even if allies weren’t officially supporting The US, they wouldn’t be able to kick them out seeing as most of these military bases are on land leased to the American Government.
Also, The Chinese military is somewhat of a “Paper Tiger”, they boast the world’s highest active-military personnel and the worlds largest navy, (in terms of numbers). However, these would be worth nothing seeing as little to none of the PLA’s actual troop numbers have ever experienced real combat, they’ve been subject to basic military drills and exercises. Realistically, the only ones in the PLA with actual military experience are military officers from the Sino-Indian war from 1962 and even they are close to retiring, soon there will be no-one in the PLA with actual combat experience. In a scenario of conflict China’s economy would crash in the first few years.
The Russian Federation holds second-place spot in the World’s most powerful militaries. With real combat experience, large number of armoured vehicles and hosts the world biggest stockpile of nukes. However, the economy of Russia is largely revolved around the energy and oil sector in which is also the highest industry and largest area for economic growth. Most energy, natural gas and oil exports from Russia are sold to the European Union, (Russia’s largest buyer). While this does give Russia a heightened position in negotiations and policies, this also enables for EU Sanctions to be hard-impacting on the Russian economy as a whole. The oligarchs are the Presidents inner-circle, they always have. If something goes wrong for them or is bad for business then the government would have abide by these demands.
Also, weak institutions cripple Russian society. Bribery and intimidation tactics are widely used in order to secure or buy-out positions in government bodies. This leads to less social-cohesion, less governing efficiency and roles going to people who inefficiently complete the tasks.
Pressure by the U.S and sanctions on Russian business, weak institutions and a crippling economy will lead to the downfall of the Russian war-machine. Whereas the embargos of Chinese goods, tariffs on imports and blockade on Chinese maritime influence would slowly but securely win the war in favour of The U.S.
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The US also depends on Russia for 60% of its energy, meaning it would be at a higher chance to lose the war, also taking into consideration the fact that Russia and China are both communist powers, meaning they don’t have the necessity to appeal to each state or each province in order to start and maintain the war, whereas America could potentially break out into a civil war if on the president was to attempt to control all the states and their trade in order to adequately fight against China and Russia. Also, US is in a lot of financial debt and lack of energy would hit it very hard, even without a war. The US would also receive some Western support, but considering the fact that the majority of the European countries rely on Russia completely for all its energy (German basically can not live without Russia), it would be kind of hard for America to win. In current day circumstances, however, because Russia is having a major defeat with Ukraine (the country is so small, and has such little military power yet Russia is not able to defeat it, even after taking control of the major nuclear plant) America may stand a chance. Also, the irony is in the fact that this question was posted in 2019… and present-day scenarios are very interesting.
Russia is no longer communist. We may import energy from Russia, but we don’t “depend” on them. The U.S. has large amounts of oil in reserves and Saudi Arabia, an oil rich nation, has close ties with U.S.
Firstly, you’ve said that in your statement The US, “depends on Russia for 60% of its energy.” No, the percentage of American energy imports from Russia is 8% overall, most of the energy imported from Canada (51%). And even if that much energy imported comes solely from Canada, domestic energy production is greater than energy consumption as of 2019. There would be no large impact of Russian energy exports being cut from trade with The US, (besides the rise in gas prices due to Russia supplying cheap oil).
Also, only China is a communist country, and even then they still loosely count as ‘pure communist’, they merely use it as a blanket term for the true ideology of being a socialist consultative democracy or a socialist market economy. Both Russia and China do not necessarily need to appeal to each state or province to start a war, yes, this is because both are authoritarian governments. Russia hides under the guise of being a ‘democracy’ when in fact those in power at the Kremlin rig the elections in favour of the sitting president (Putin). China on the other hand is a blatantly obvious authoritarian regime controlled by the CCP, (Chinese Communist Party). However, If China were to use major resources that were dedicated to industries of economic sectors from provinces then there would be significant backlash and internal strife. Russia is able to do this only because of the vast influence the military holds on the country itself, the vast resources which can easily be distributed in large amounts, and the political power of the Kremlin.
Even though debt is a major problem for the US in the long-term, there are ways to cut this debt such as raising taxes, cutting spending, opening the country’s borders to immigrants, kick-starting entrepreneurship and many more. This problem is bigger for Russia than The US due to not being financially able to pay off such debts with efficiency.
If this war was solely between these three countries, then that doesn’t mean other countries aren’t allowed to support different sides. The EU would hit Russia hard with economic sanctions on Russian businesses, energy exports, and goods, (similar to the situation in Ukraine). Even if they are dependent on cheap Russian gas, there are always countries who’d happily be alternatives to Russia such as Turkmenistan or Azerbaijan.
In conclusion, The US does not have to win, they simply have to outlive and outlast the others.
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